While 254 million affected globally with HBV, the disease remains endemic in Nigeria due to imperfect vaccination efficacy and limited coverage
Hepatitis B blood test.
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A study published in Scientific Reports has developed a mathematical model of hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission using integer and fractional calculus to assess the effects of vaccination with imperfect efficacy. The model, calibrated with real case data from Nigeria, reveals the basic reproduction number R₀ > 1, confirming HBV remains endemic in the country.1
The research uses the Caputo fractional derivative to reflect memory and hereditary properties in disease transmission. Stability analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium remains globally stable under certain conditions. However, endemic equilibria emerge when vaccination coverage fails to bring R₀ below 1.1
The model's existence and uniqueness were validated using the Banach contraction principle, and global stability was established via the Ulam-Hyers method. Numerical simulations using the Adams-Bashforth scheme confirmed the accuracy and robustness of the fractional-order model.1
The study underscores that despite vaccination efforts, imperfect efficacy and limited coverage allow HBV to persist in Nigeria. The findings suggest that enhancing vaccine efficacy and increasing coverage rates are critical to curbing the ongoing transmission of the virus.
In a recent piece by Olajumoke Oludoun, a researcher in Nigeria, she explores hepatitis B as a global health issue that continues to be overlooked. The virus affects over 296 million people worldwide, often leading to cirrhosis and liver cancer, without noticeable symptoms in the early stages.2
Oludoun, a research fellow at Bowen University, highlights Nigeria, where about 8.1 percent of the population is chronically infected with HBV. She identifies low vaccination rates, limited awareness, and weak screening systems as significant challenges. Vaccination, particularly at birth, plays a key role in prevention. While infant immunization is routine in Nigeria, adult vaccination rates remain low due to cost and lack of awareness. Oludoun calls for better national vaccination programs and greater access to vaccines.2
She also emphasizes the importance of screening. Many individuals are unaware of their infection status, and stigma often prevents others from seeking a test. Expanding testing, especially in rural areas and among high-risk groups, is essential to controlling the spread of the virus.2
Treatment with antivirals like tenofovir and entecavir can lower viral loads and limit complications, but access to these treatments is still limited in Nigeria. Oludoun advocates for more funding and policy changes to improve care.2
She supports the WHO's goal to eliminate hepatitis B as a public health threat by 2030. Nigeria has begun aligning with this goal through awareness campaigns and efforts to strengthen health systems. Oludoun concludes by urging joint efforts from governments, healthcare workers, and communities to expand prevention, testing, and treatment, and to break the silence around hepatitis B.2
A mathematical model of hepatitis B transmission in Nigeria confirms the virus remains endemic due to imperfect vaccination efficacy and low coverage.
Despite vaccination efforts, limited awareness, low vaccination rates, and weak screening systems contribute to the ongoing transmission of HBV in Nigeria.
Global efforts to eliminate HBV by 2030, including increased vaccination, better testing, and expanded treatment, are essential to reduce the burden of the virus.
As of 2022, 254 million people are living with chronic HBV. Of these, 86% are undiagnosed, and 97% have not received treatment. The WHO's 2016 hepatitis elimination strategy aims for a 90% reduction in new chronic HBV infections and a 65% reduction in HBV-related deaths by 2030, with initial milestones targeting a 30% reduction in new infections and 10% in mortality by 2020.3
The WHO's 2021 interim guidance, updated in 2023, introduced national impact targets and programmatic goals to support HBV elimination at the country level. The hepatitis B vaccine prevents 95% of infections and provides protection lasting over 35 years, yet adult vaccination and treatment coverage remain low in many high-burden regions.3
A recent international survey found that many people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are hesitant to get tested for hepatitis B. Nearly a third of respondents showed no interest in testing, and over half did not believe they were at risk. Geographic disparities exist, with Morocco and South Africa having the highest percentages of people unlikely to seek testing (60% and 52%, respectively). Despite the availability of vaccines and treatments, awareness of HBV remains low. In high-prevalence regions, only 13% of people with chronic hepatitis B have been diagnosed, and fewer than 3% have received antiviral treatment.4
In 2022, 1.2 million people were newly infected with HBV, and chronic hepatitis B is responsible for around 1.3 million deaths annually. The burden of HBV remains high, but testing and treatment rates remain low. Expanding access to affordable testing, integrating education into healthcare systems, and addressing workplace barriers to screenings are essential steps to reducing the global burden of hepatitis B.4
