By 2050, Global Mortality Associated With Antimicrobial Resistance Could Reach More Than 39 Million People
New predictive statistical modeling shows that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) deaths will rise steadily in the coming decades.
Image credit: Pixabay, Pexels
In December 2014, a group of United Kingdom investigators published a paper predicting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could cause 10 million deaths a year by 2050. This was the first paper to shine a light on this problem globally illustrating a frightening analysis that received a lot of attention showing that mortality for AMR would greatly surpass all other health issues.1
This week, a new study published in The Lancet looked at mortality associated with AMR from the present day up to 2050 and the number of deaths in the next 25 years. This modeling study predicted that more than 39 million people could die from AMR globally in that time period.2
According to the investigators, more than 1 million people died each year as a result of AMR between 1990 and 2021. The study also estimates 1.91 million people could potentially die as a direct result of AMR in 2050, an increase of almost 70% per year compared to 2022. Over the same period, the number of deaths in which AMR bacteria play a role will increase by almost 75% from 4.71 million to 8.22 million per year.2
“Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern. These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing. Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives,” study author Mohsen Naghavi, MD, PhD, team leader of the AMR Research Team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, said in a statement. 3
This table captures the estimated and predicted figures for AMR-related deaths, showing how the number of deaths is expected to grow over time.
Table credit: ChatGPT
The Individual, Human Toll
Although predictive analysis and statistics is helpful in detailing the scope of the problem, they can often reduce this to a theoretic problem. To fully understand the problem it is important to remind people of the human toll it takes on individuals, their families, friends, and all those who touch a person with a resistant infection.
Mallory Smith succumbed to AMR at the age of 25 after she developed a resistant pathogen, Burkholderia cepacian, in her lungs. Mallory had a longtime battle with cystic fibrosis (CF). Through the years, Mallory had been hospitalized to treat infections, and eventually, she became a candidate for a double-lung transplant. She had a successful surgery, but even with new lungs, the pathogen was back and sadly she did not survive.
Her mother, Diane Shader Smith, became an AMR advocate to help the general public understand the issue further and the human tragedy associated with it. Contagion recently interviewed her about her daughter and what people need to know about this public health issue.
And this is just 1 individual story, with millions more that have happened and will unfold in the future. The theoretical knowledge of this pressing global issue needs to change to action.
What is Being Done
There are individuals, organizations, and governments looking to ease the burden of AMR, and one of the primary initiatives being considered is to use incentives to have pharmaceutical companies develop more antibiotics.
For example, in the United States there is the prospective bill, The Pasteur Act, which has been in Congress for a few years now. This bill authorizes the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to enter into subscription contracts for critical-need antimicrobial drugs, provides $6 billion in appropriations for activities under the bill, and contains other related provisions.4
Last year, Senators Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Todd Young (R-IN) and Representatives Drew Ferguson (R-GA) and Scott Peters (D-CA), reintroduced the Pasteur Act in Congress. The bill was initially introduced in Congress by Bennet and Young in September 2020; the pair, along with Representatives Mike Doyle (D-PA) and Ferguson, then reintroduced the bill in June 2021.
Contagion recently interviewed Amanda Jezek, the senior vice president for Public Policy and Government Relations at IDSA, who provided an update on the Pasteur Act.
If you are interested in this subject, check out our recent coverage from the World AMR Congress.
